Monitoring water discharge and floodplain connectivity for the northern Andes utilizing satellite data: A tool for river planning and science-based decision-making

River discharge data and magnitudes of floods are often not readily available for decision makers of many developing nations, including Colombia. And this while flooding for these regions is often devastating, causing many fatalities and insurmountable damage to the most vulnerable communities. During the we season, in strong La Nina years, infrastructural damages of over $US 7.2 billion have occurred. Mitigation of such natural disasters lacks data-supported scientific approaches for evaluating river response to extreme climate events. Here, we propose a satellite-based technique to measure river discharge at selected sites for the main northern Andean River, the Magdalena. This method has the advantage of back calculating daily river discharges over a period of two decades, and thus making it possible to calculate return intervals of significant flood events. The study shows that satellite based river discharges well capture a) the inter-annual variability of river discharge; b) the natural seasonality of water discharge along the floodplains; and c) peak discharges that were observed during La Nina conditions between 2008 and 2011. The last is likely more accurate compared to ground-based gauging stations, as ground-based stations tend to overflow during large flood events and as such are hampered to accurately monitor peak discharges. Furthermore, we show that these derived discharges can form the base to study river-floodplain connectivity, providing environmental decision makers with a technique that makes it possible to better monitor river and ecosystem processes

Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth Surface Dynamics 5 (2017): 585-603, doi:10.5194/esurf-5-585-2017.The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal) dynamics or allogenic (external) forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.This study was supported by NSF grant EAR-0952146

River gauging at global scale using optical and passive microwave remote sensing

Recent discharge observations are lacking for most rivers globally. Discharge can be estimated from remotely sensed floodplain and channel inundation area, but there is currently no method that can be automatically extended to many rivers. We examined whether automated monitoring is feasible by statistically relating inundation estimates from moderate to coarse (>0.05°) resolution remote sensing to monthly station discharge records. Inundation extents were derived from optical MODIS data and passive microwave sensors, and compared to monthly discharge records from over 8000 gauging stations and satellite altimetry observations for 442 reaches of large rivers. An automated statistical method selected grid cells to construct “satellite gauging reaches” (SGRs). MODIS SGRs were generally more accurate than passive microwave SGRs, but there were complementary strengths. The rivers widely varied in size, regime, and morphology. As expected performance was low (R  0.6. The best results (R > 0.9) were obtained for large unregulated lowland rivers, particularly in tropical and boreal regions. Relatively poor results were obtained in arid regions, where flow pulses are few and recede rapidly, and in temperate regions, where many rivers are modified and contained. Provided discharge variations produce clear changes in inundated area and gauge records are available for part of the satellite record, SGRs can retrieve monthly river discharge values back to around 1998 and up to present

Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling

Modeling is essential to characterize and explore complex societal and environmental issues in systematic and collaborative ways. Socio-environmental systems (SES) modeling integrates knowledge and perspectives into conceptual and computational tools that explicitly recognize how human decisions affect the environment. Depending on the modeling purpose, many SES modelers also realize that involvement of stakeholders and experts is fundamental to support social learning and decision-making processes for achieving improved environmental and social outcomes. The contribution of this paper lies in identifying and formulating grand challenges that need to be overcome to accelerate the development and adaptation of SES modeling. Eight challenges are delineated: bridging epistemologies across disciplines; multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment and management; scales and scaling issues; combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data; furthering the adoption and impacts of SES modeling on policy; capturing structural changes; representing human dimensions in SES; and leveraging new data types and sources. These challenges limit our ability to effectively use SES modeling to provide the knowledge and information essential for supporting decision making. Whereas some of these challenges are not unique to SES modeling and may be pervasive in other scientific fields, they still act as barriers as well as research opportunities for the SES modeling community. For each challenge, we outline basic steps that can be taken to surmount the underpinning barriers. Thus, the paper identifies priority research areas in SES modeling, chiefly related to progressing modeling products, processes and practices

Metabolome Based Reaction Graphs of M. tuberculosis and M. leprae: A Comparative Network Analysis

BACKGROUND: Several types of networks, such as transcriptional, metabolic or protein-protein interaction networks of various organisms have been constructed, that have provided a variety of insights into metabolism and regulation. Here, we seek to exploit the reaction-based networks of three organisms for comparative genomics. We use concepts from spectral graph theory to systematically determine how differences in basic metabolism of organisms are reflected at the systems level and in the overall topological structures of their metabolic networks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Metabolome-based reaction networks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium leprae and Escherichia coli have been constructed based on the KEGG LIGAND database, followed by graph spectral analysis of the network to identify hubs as well as the sub-clustering of reactions. The shortest and alternate paths in the reaction networks have also been examined. Sub-cluster profiling demonstrates that reactions of the mycolic acid pathway in mycobacteria form a tightly connected sub-cluster. Identification of hubs reveals reactions involving glutamate to be central to mycobacterial metabolism, and pyruvate to be at the centre of the E. coli metabolome. The analysis of shortest paths between reactions has revealed several paths that are shorter than well established pathways. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that severe downsizing of the leprae genome has not significantly altered the global structure of its reaction network but has reduced the total number of alternate paths between its reactions while keeping the shortest paths between them intact. The hubs in the mycobacterial networks that are absent in the human metabolome can be explored as potential drug targets. This work demonstrates the usefulness of constructing metabolome based networks of organisms and the feasibility of their analyses through graph spectral methods. The insights obtained from such studies provide a broad overview of the similarities and differences between organisms, taking comparative genomics studies to a higher dimension

A global network for operational flood risk reduction

Every year riverine flooding affects millions of people in developing countries, due to the large population exposure in the floodplains and the lack of adequate flood protection measures. Preparedness and monitoring are effective ways to reduce flood risk. State-of-the-art technologies relying on satellite remote sensing as well as numerical hydrological and weather predictions can detect and monitor severe flood events at a global scale. This paper describes the emerging role of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP), a global network of scientists, users, private and public organizations active in global flood risk management. Currently, a number of GFP member institutes regularly share results from their experimental products, developed to predict and monitor where and when flooding is taking place in near real-time. GFP flood products have already been used on several occasions by national environmental agencies and humanitarian organizations to support emergency operations and to reduce the overall socio-economic impacts of disasters. This paper describes a range of global flood products developed by GFP partners, and how these provide complementary information to support and improve current global flood risk management for large scale catastrophes. We also discuss existing challenges and ways forward to turn current experimental products into an integrated flood risk management platform to improve rapid access to flood information and increase resilience to flood events at global scale

Assisting flood disaster response with earth observation data and products:A critical assessment

Floods are among the top-ranking natural disasters in terms of annual cost in insured and uninsured losses. Since high-impact events often cover spatial scales that are beyond traditional regional monitoring operations, remote sensing, in particular from satellites, presents an attractive approach. Since the 1970s, there have been many studies in the scientific literature about mapping and monitoring of floods using data from various sensors onboard different satellites. The field has now matured and hence there is a general consensus among space agencies, numerous organizations, scientists, and end-users to strengthen the support that satellite missions can offer, particularly in assisting flood disaster response activities. This has stimulated more research in this area, and significant progress has been achieved in recent years in fostering our understanding of the ways in which remote sensing can support flood monitoring and assist emergency response activities. This paper reviews the products and services that currently exist to deliver actionable information about an ongoing flood disaster to emergency response operations. It also critically discusses requirements, challenges and perspectives for improving operational assistance during flood disaster using satellite remote sensing products